（最佳有加分）请给我提供一些关于美国总统选举制度的资料
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解决时间 2021-03-17 16:12
- 提问者网友：火车头
- 2021-03-16 16:29
（最佳有加分）请给我提供一些关于美国总统选举制度的资料
最佳答案
- 五星知识达人网友：duile
- 2021-03-16 17:31
Introduction
There are very many elections each year in America - over 80,000 - though the most important, the national election for president is held every four years. These elections are far from simple in terms of organisation. In fact, research indicates that many Americans do not fully understand the nation's electoral structure which might be one of the reasons to explain why nearly 50% of those eligible to vote in November 2000 did not do so.
The process for a national election lasts nearly a year - nearly 25% of the standing president's time in power. A party must provide nominated people to stand for election. They obviously need to have (or are assumed to have) public charisma and are experienced in going public A shy candidate would be a potential disaster in what is becoming an increasingly media dominated event - especially with regards to the use of television.
Of those nominated, only one is selected by the party delegates at the national conventions. This person then goes onto represent that party in the national presidential election. The running mate for the presidential candidate is also announced at the national convention.
The voting body at a national convention is made up of delegates and super-delegates. How each delegate gets to a national convention is a complicated business and can differ markedly from state to state. The two parties at state level can decide which system they use to send delegates to a national convention.
There are two systems : the caucus system and the primary elections. However, the structure of primary elections can differ from state to state. Some delegates are elected in a straight 'first-past-the-post' system while other states use a form of proportional representation to give a greater spread of representation among the delegates sent to a national convention.
The delegates, once at a convention, vote for a candidate for the presidential election. Super-delegates have tended to muddy this system, and therefore the whole voting structure at the national conventions.
Super-delegates are senior civil servants, governors, ex-presidents and old-established figures within the party - be it Democrat or Republican. The super-delegates inflate the number of people who can vote at a convention and they can be very influential in the final decision of who runs for presidency for the party that they represent. Super-delegates are not voted for by state parties and they tend to undermine the issue of state party democracy.
After the national conventions, the two parties presidential hopefuls can concentrate on campaigning for the ultimate prize in American politics.
The start of an election campaign in America can be as much as one year before the actual election. When both Presidents Carter and Reagan decided that they would run for presidency both left their positions as governors and campaigned for a year before the election to work out grass roots support for them and to spread their ‘gospel’. It worked as both were elected. George W Bush and Al Gore started effective campaigning in January 2000 for a November election.
George Bush for the 2000 campaign continued to be governor of Texas but spent most of his time on the campaign trial. His one notable ‘event’ during the 2000 campaign as governor was his refusal to commute the death sentence on a rapist/murderer who was duly executed on the authority of the state’s governor. The Democrats responded with the "15 minutes" tag whereby they criticised the governor (to-be-president) on his record of deciding on a commutation of the death sentence or the execution being carried out: it was claimed that Bush Junior took only 15 minutes to decide the fate of a condemned man and that he was pandering to the belief in the South (a vital electoral region) that judicial execution was acceptable.
Officially an election campaign starts in February with the presidential primaries in the so-called "primary season". It continues from here. The key month for when party wards, precincts and states vote for their presidential candidate is March which includes "Super Tuesday". By then it is likely that those who had forwarded themselves for the party nomination for presidency will know if there is sufficient support for them within the party for them to proceed. Many will have drained their finances sufficiently to lead to them pulling out of the campaign.
This is how the campaign runs using the Democratic Party as an example :
Wards X, Y Z etc. vote for their presidential nomination for the town/city of Tahoe, California. Delegates, to represent their views at the party's state convention, are also elected. This is usually done only by active and registered party members.
Delegates voted for within the town/city go to the party’s state convention and theoretically put forward the views of their city for presidential nomination. The delegates then vote for their nomination and that state will adopt politician A. For example, for the 1996 election, the Republican politician (and eventually the elected Republican candidate) Bob Dole received in his best showing 82% of the votes of Republican delegates in New Jersey. Clinton, as the Democrats unopposed nomination in 1996, received 100% of the delegates for Georgia, his home state…………..
Delegates from the state party go to the party National Convention in August where all the state delegates assemble and vote for their party’s presidential nomination. The person who has a majority support amongst the delegates at the national convention wins the party’s backing for presidential nomination and the nomination for vice president is also voted for.
But :
It is not as clear cut or as simple as this.
Each ward can use its own system of voting for delegates and presidential nomination. This is not standardised throughout America and is symptomatic of the democracy that is meant to seep throughout politics right down to grass roots level. The theory is "why should regional party ‘big-wigs’ dictate to us how we should run our local party structure?".
The National Conventions are inflated delegate-wise with "super delegates" who have not been voted for at a local or state level but are people who have been rewarded by the party for loyalty and long service. These would include state governors, ex-presidents, senior civil servants etc. They can have a marked impact on the final voting of a national convention. That they do not necessarily reflect local party beliefs remains a source of contention in America.
Regardless of this, the most basic requirement that a presidential candidate must have is support at grass roots level.
This requires much travelling throughout the states and therefore a presidential candidate must have sufficient funds to see through a campaign. Winning the hearts and minds of local party activists is vital for a presidential candidate to proceed. They will vote for a candidate who has charisma and political know-how.
In the 1996 election the former Chief of Staff, Colin Powell, who had made his name during the Gulf War, was expected by the media to announce his intention to run for the presidency. However, Powell did not do this despite his popularity amongst the public simply because he, by his own admission, did not possess sufficient political know-how; something that can only be gained with years of political service (though to some extent J F Kennedy bucked this trend).
'Primary election' is the term used in America for the elections which will select the two parties presidential nomination. The primary elections start in January of election year in what is called the "primary season". A good start to the primaries is considered vital if a candidate is to become his party's presidential nomination - however, George W Bush bucked this trend in the 2000 primary season by making a poor start but ultimately winning the Republican Party's nomination.
Since 1952 the first primary election has traditionally been in New Hampshire. It is the first real test of opinion and receives a great deal of publicity from the media. As a result a number of other states have tried to bring forward their primaries but the biggest contender to New Hampshire in terms of importance has been the decision by 21 mostly Southern states to hold their primaries on the same day in what has become known as "Super Tuesday". Originally this was on March 8th 1988, but it is now usually held on the second Tuesday of March in election year.
There are a variety of ways in which the elections at a local level are held. These can almost be seen as the heats in an athletics meeting. If you win this you move on to the next one, the semi-finals (state party elections) and if you win this, on to the final itself. One is the caucus system. Others are the so-called primaries : closed primaries, open primaries and blanket primaries.
Regardless of their title, the primaries are designed to give as much democracy as is deemed possible to local politics. This is not so true for the caucus system.
Caucuses
The word "caucus" itself comes from the Native People of America and means "to gather together and make a great noise."
This seems rather appropriate but this system of electing a presidential nominee is becoming less and less popular as it puts a great deal of power in the hands of local party bosses and the fear is that the beliefs of the people themselves at a local level are not necessarily listened to.
By 1980 only 25% of the delegates to the national conventions (coming from 18 states) were voted for in this way. In 1988, only 16% of the Democrats delegates were selected in this manner while just under 21% of Republicans were. The figure has continued to shrink with only 12 Republican state parties using the caucus system in 1996 with the Democrats using it in only 14 states.
What is a caucus?
A caucus is a series of party meetings at every level of party organisation within a state; wards, precincts, districts and counties. At each level, party members vote for delegates who will take their opinions on the choice of presidential candidate forward to the next level. Ultimately the state conventions choose the delegates to the national convention.
Caucus meetings tend to be dominated by party activists who are sufficiently committed to the party’s cause to take part in each stage. Supporters of the caucus system believe that it leads to the best candidate being selected. However, meetings are closed (i.e. not opened up to anyone other than a party member) and historically they were linked to a small group of men in Congress and in state legislatures who selected party candidates for national and state office including presidential candidates.
As a result of this apparent lack of a democratic approach, fewer and fewer states are using this type of selection. Many feel that the system allows the local ‘big-wigs’ in politics to dominate a ward, precinct etc. and that any final choice of presidential candidate is not really representative of those at the caucus but purely the views of such political figures who dominate at a local level.
What are primaries ?
This system allows a broader participation of voters to express their views on who should represent the party at the next election. In some primaries you do not have to be a party member to vote.
Closed primaries offer a greater degree of participation than caucuses in that voting is not confined to party members. Those voters who have declared an affiliation to a party are allowed to participate in that party’s primary. This declaration can literally be done as the voter enters the polling office with a statement that s/he voted for the Democrats at the last election and that they intend voting in this primary; assuming this was a Democrats primary !!
Open primaries allow even greater participation. The voters of a state, regardless of their party affiliation, can participate in either party’s primary but not both. The advantage of this system is that it allows the most popular candidate to be put forward and one who will have appeal across party lines. This, of course, is an advantage. But the purely democratic nature of this system is open to abuse as in the past there have been cases whereby Democrats, for example, have legally voted at a Republican primary, though not at their own, but have voted for what was the worst candidate. The Republicans have done likewise at Democratic primaries. Twenty nine states use this system of voting.
Blanket primaries offer the widest possible participation. Voters are allowed to vote in both primary elections of the parties - i.e. at both the Republican and Democrat primaries.
States also vary in the way they allocate delegates to the presidential candidates. Some primaries use the 'winner-take-all' system (WTA) whereby the candidate who wins the most votes at a primary gets all of the delegates.
The alternative system is the proportional representation primary (PR) which allocates delegates in proportion to the number of votes they received in the primary. The Democrats have used PR since 1969 in an effort to increase the voice of the minority groups and to broaden the appeal of the candidates. However in recent years the party has used WTA in larger primaries and some of the larger states favour such a system as they feel that WTA increases their political clout in the overall nomination process of the presidential candidate.
Some primaries are also called "advisory primaries" as the elected delegates to the national convention do not have to follow the views of the voters and they are free to follow their own preference for presidential candidate. However, the voters have expressed their advice - hence the title - on the ballot paper.
Other primaries are called "mandatory primaries" or "binding primaries" as the views of the voters with regards to the presidential candidate are binding on the delegates and the delegates at the national convention cast their votes accordingly.
However, this was successfully challenged in 1982 when the Supreme Court declared that a state could not force a delegate to a national convention to support the winner of his/her state’s presidential primary (Democratic Party v La Follette).
The primary season plays a very important role in American politics. While the caucus system was predominant, party bosses could effectively decide who the delegates voted for. This was hardly democratic but the man who was the favoured candidate had little to worry about with regards to the primary season. This quite obviously is no longer the case and the primaries now take far greater importance: for example, 77% of the votes cast by Republican delegates in 1988 came from those selected by primaries. Party leaders can no longer ignore these primaries.
Sine 1952 the primary in the state of New Hampshire has been the first and most important as it gives an indication of public opinion with regards to the voters. A candidate must do well here as a failure to do so could mean a drastic fall in that candidate’s financial status as backers might pull out and potential backers would not wish to back a non-starter. Also a failure in the New Hampshire primary might just seal the fate of that candidate who might get labelled a failure even before the nomination contest has got underway.
A failure will also do a lot to affect party support. New Hampshire has jealously guarded its position as the first state to declare who has won the party nominations and it has pushed the date of the primary election earlier and earlier. In fact, the state legislature has stated that the primary must be one week before any other state primary. In the 1996 election it was held in February. The election was in November.
The next most important date is in March when "Super Tuesday" takes place. This is when 21 states declare their nominations. A candidate can be made or broken on this day. The first "Super Tuesday" was on 8th March 1988 and it is held on the second Tuesday in March. As most of the 21 states are southern, traditionally this is a good time for southern candidates. In 1992, Bill Clinton (Arkansas) won practically all the nominations available.
In 1996, the mid-western states of Illinois, Michigan and Ohio held their primaries on the third Tuesday in March. This was done as an attempt to boost the importance of these three states which had been seen as something of a backwater politically.
California is a vital state to win. Traditionally, its primary was held in June but in 1996, it was moved to March. Winning here is very important as the state sends 20% of all the delegates to both party’s national conventions. The move to March was meant to symbolise how important this state is politically regardless of "Super Tuesday". New York state has its primary in April. By then, America will have a reasonably good idea as to who the Democrats and Republicans nominations are.
The so-called "primary season" requires candidates to involve themselves in an intensive media campaign. From February to the end of April there is no time to raise finance and this has to be done before the primaries. This need for finance allows the better known candidates more leeway as they will be better financed and therefore have more time to campaign. They are also likely to have built up a better rapport and connections with the media and they will be able to use it to their advantage.
At this time the candidates are practically by themselves and they only receive party support when it is obvious that as a candidate they have the potential to attract public support across the nation. A candidate who is not viable is not going to receive this support. A candidate who does not have the necessary financial backing will find the going extremely tough as regional primaries such as in the mid-west are expensive and to keep a campaign in the field will cost a great deal. Candidates have to adhere to the financial regulations laid down by the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1974.
How well do incumbent presidents do in primaries ? Clinton did well enough to not be opposed at the 1996 Democratic National Convention. Other presidents who wish to stand again have not done as well. Lyndon Johnson in 1968, withdrew from the Democrat’s nomination process after doing badly at the New Hampshire primary. He won just over 50% of the votes cast and he was expected to do a lot better. He suffered on the backlash that was occurring against the Vietnam. Sensing a weakened candidate, Robert Kennedy, who had been Attorney-General under his brother, announced his entry into the race and Johnson withdrew his candidacy. History tends to indicate that recent presidents who seek re-election but experience a significant challenge in the primaries usually lose the election itself - Ford (1976), Carter (1980) and Bush (1992) seem to indicate this.
There are very many elections each year in America - over 80,000 - though the most important, the national election for president is held every four years. These elections are far from simple in terms of organisation. In fact, research indicates that many Americans do not fully understand the nation's electoral structure which might be one of the reasons to explain why nearly 50% of those eligible to vote in November 2000 did not do so.
The process for a national election lasts nearly a year - nearly 25% of the standing president's time in power. A party must provide nominated people to stand for election. They obviously need to have (or are assumed to have) public charisma and are experienced in going public A shy candidate would be a potential disaster in what is becoming an increasingly media dominated event - especially with regards to the use of television.
Of those nominated, only one is selected by the party delegates at the national conventions. This person then goes onto represent that party in the national presidential election. The running mate for the presidential candidate is also announced at the national convention.
The voting body at a national convention is made up of delegates and super-delegates. How each delegate gets to a national convention is a complicated business and can differ markedly from state to state. The two parties at state level can decide which system they use to send delegates to a national convention.
There are two systems : the caucus system and the primary elections. However, the structure of primary elections can differ from state to state. Some delegates are elected in a straight 'first-past-the-post' system while other states use a form of proportional representation to give a greater spread of representation among the delegates sent to a national convention.
The delegates, once at a convention, vote for a candidate for the presidential election. Super-delegates have tended to muddy this system, and therefore the whole voting structure at the national conventions.
Super-delegates are senior civil servants, governors, ex-presidents and old-established figures within the party - be it Democrat or Republican. The super-delegates inflate the number of people who can vote at a convention and they can be very influential in the final decision of who runs for presidency for the party that they represent. Super-delegates are not voted for by state parties and they tend to undermine the issue of state party democracy.
After the national conventions, the two parties presidential hopefuls can concentrate on campaigning for the ultimate prize in American politics.
The start of an election campaign in America can be as much as one year before the actual election. When both Presidents Carter and Reagan decided that they would run for presidency both left their positions as governors and campaigned for a year before the election to work out grass roots support for them and to spread their ‘gospel’. It worked as both were elected. George W Bush and Al Gore started effective campaigning in January 2000 for a November election.
George Bush for the 2000 campaign continued to be governor of Texas but spent most of his time on the campaign trial. His one notable ‘event’ during the 2000 campaign as governor was his refusal to commute the death sentence on a rapist/murderer who was duly executed on the authority of the state’s governor. The Democrats responded with the "15 minutes" tag whereby they criticised the governor (to-be-president) on his record of deciding on a commutation of the death sentence or the execution being carried out: it was claimed that Bush Junior took only 15 minutes to decide the fate of a condemned man and that he was pandering to the belief in the South (a vital electoral region) that judicial execution was acceptable.
Officially an election campaign starts in February with the presidential primaries in the so-called "primary season". It continues from here. The key month for when party wards, precincts and states vote for their presidential candidate is March which includes "Super Tuesday". By then it is likely that those who had forwarded themselves for the party nomination for presidency will know if there is sufficient support for them within the party for them to proceed. Many will have drained their finances sufficiently to lead to them pulling out of the campaign.
This is how the campaign runs using the Democratic Party as an example :
Wards X, Y Z etc. vote for their presidential nomination for the town/city of Tahoe, California. Delegates, to represent their views at the party's state convention, are also elected. This is usually done only by active and registered party members.
Delegates voted for within the town/city go to the party’s state convention and theoretically put forward the views of their city for presidential nomination. The delegates then vote for their nomination and that state will adopt politician A. For example, for the 1996 election, the Republican politician (and eventually the elected Republican candidate) Bob Dole received in his best showing 82% of the votes of Republican delegates in New Jersey. Clinton, as the Democrats unopposed nomination in 1996, received 100% of the delegates for Georgia, his home state…………..
Delegates from the state party go to the party National Convention in August where all the state delegates assemble and vote for their party’s presidential nomination. The person who has a majority support amongst the delegates at the national convention wins the party’s backing for presidential nomination and the nomination for vice president is also voted for.
But :
It is not as clear cut or as simple as this.
Each ward can use its own system of voting for delegates and presidential nomination. This is not standardised throughout America and is symptomatic of the democracy that is meant to seep throughout politics right down to grass roots level. The theory is "why should regional party ‘big-wigs’ dictate to us how we should run our local party structure?".
The National Conventions are inflated delegate-wise with "super delegates" who have not been voted for at a local or state level but are people who have been rewarded by the party for loyalty and long service. These would include state governors, ex-presidents, senior civil servants etc. They can have a marked impact on the final voting of a national convention. That they do not necessarily reflect local party beliefs remains a source of contention in America.
Regardless of this, the most basic requirement that a presidential candidate must have is support at grass roots level.
This requires much travelling throughout the states and therefore a presidential candidate must have sufficient funds to see through a campaign. Winning the hearts and minds of local party activists is vital for a presidential candidate to proceed. They will vote for a candidate who has charisma and political know-how.
In the 1996 election the former Chief of Staff, Colin Powell, who had made his name during the Gulf War, was expected by the media to announce his intention to run for the presidency. However, Powell did not do this despite his popularity amongst the public simply because he, by his own admission, did not possess sufficient political know-how; something that can only be gained with years of political service (though to some extent J F Kennedy bucked this trend).
'Primary election' is the term used in America for the elections which will select the two parties presidential nomination. The primary elections start in January of election year in what is called the "primary season". A good start to the primaries is considered vital if a candidate is to become his party's presidential nomination - however, George W Bush bucked this trend in the 2000 primary season by making a poor start but ultimately winning the Republican Party's nomination.
Since 1952 the first primary election has traditionally been in New Hampshire. It is the first real test of opinion and receives a great deal of publicity from the media. As a result a number of other states have tried to bring forward their primaries but the biggest contender to New Hampshire in terms of importance has been the decision by 21 mostly Southern states to hold their primaries on the same day in what has become known as "Super Tuesday". Originally this was on March 8th 1988, but it is now usually held on the second Tuesday of March in election year.
There are a variety of ways in which the elections at a local level are held. These can almost be seen as the heats in an athletics meeting. If you win this you move on to the next one, the semi-finals (state party elections) and if you win this, on to the final itself. One is the caucus system. Others are the so-called primaries : closed primaries, open primaries and blanket primaries.
Regardless of their title, the primaries are designed to give as much democracy as is deemed possible to local politics. This is not so true for the caucus system.
Caucuses
The word "caucus" itself comes from the Native People of America and means "to gather together and make a great noise."
This seems rather appropriate but this system of electing a presidential nominee is becoming less and less popular as it puts a great deal of power in the hands of local party bosses and the fear is that the beliefs of the people themselves at a local level are not necessarily listened to.
By 1980 only 25% of the delegates to the national conventions (coming from 18 states) were voted for in this way. In 1988, only 16% of the Democrats delegates were selected in this manner while just under 21% of Republicans were. The figure has continued to shrink with only 12 Republican state parties using the caucus system in 1996 with the Democrats using it in only 14 states.
What is a caucus?
A caucus is a series of party meetings at every level of party organisation within a state; wards, precincts, districts and counties. At each level, party members vote for delegates who will take their opinions on the choice of presidential candidate forward to the next level. Ultimately the state conventions choose the delegates to the national convention.
Caucus meetings tend to be dominated by party activists who are sufficiently committed to the party’s cause to take part in each stage. Supporters of the caucus system believe that it leads to the best candidate being selected. However, meetings are closed (i.e. not opened up to anyone other than a party member) and historically they were linked to a small group of men in Congress and in state legislatures who selected party candidates for national and state office including presidential candidates.
As a result of this apparent lack of a democratic approach, fewer and fewer states are using this type of selection. Many feel that the system allows the local ‘big-wigs’ in politics to dominate a ward, precinct etc. and that any final choice of presidential candidate is not really representative of those at the caucus but purely the views of such political figures who dominate at a local level.
What are primaries ?
This system allows a broader participation of voters to express their views on who should represent the party at the next election. In some primaries you do not have to be a party member to vote.
Closed primaries offer a greater degree of participation than caucuses in that voting is not confined to party members. Those voters who have declared an affiliation to a party are allowed to participate in that party’s primary. This declaration can literally be done as the voter enters the polling office with a statement that s/he voted for the Democrats at the last election and that they intend voting in this primary; assuming this was a Democrats primary !!
Open primaries allow even greater participation. The voters of a state, regardless of their party affiliation, can participate in either party’s primary but not both. The advantage of this system is that it allows the most popular candidate to be put forward and one who will have appeal across party lines. This, of course, is an advantage. But the purely democratic nature of this system is open to abuse as in the past there have been cases whereby Democrats, for example, have legally voted at a Republican primary, though not at their own, but have voted for what was the worst candidate. The Republicans have done likewise at Democratic primaries. Twenty nine states use this system of voting.
Blanket primaries offer the widest possible participation. Voters are allowed to vote in both primary elections of the parties - i.e. at both the Republican and Democrat primaries.
States also vary in the way they allocate delegates to the presidential candidates. Some primaries use the 'winner-take-all' system (WTA) whereby the candidate who wins the most votes at a primary gets all of the delegates.
The alternative system is the proportional representation primary (PR) which allocates delegates in proportion to the number of votes they received in the primary. The Democrats have used PR since 1969 in an effort to increase the voice of the minority groups and to broaden the appeal of the candidates. However in recent years the party has used WTA in larger primaries and some of the larger states favour such a system as they feel that WTA increases their political clout in the overall nomination process of the presidential candidate.
Some primaries are also called "advisory primaries" as the elected delegates to the national convention do not have to follow the views of the voters and they are free to follow their own preference for presidential candidate. However, the voters have expressed their advice - hence the title - on the ballot paper.
Other primaries are called "mandatory primaries" or "binding primaries" as the views of the voters with regards to the presidential candidate are binding on the delegates and the delegates at the national convention cast their votes accordingly.
However, this was successfully challenged in 1982 when the Supreme Court declared that a state could not force a delegate to a national convention to support the winner of his/her state’s presidential primary (Democratic Party v La Follette).
The primary season plays a very important role in American politics. While the caucus system was predominant, party bosses could effectively decide who the delegates voted for. This was hardly democratic but the man who was the favoured candidate had little to worry about with regards to the primary season. This quite obviously is no longer the case and the primaries now take far greater importance: for example, 77% of the votes cast by Republican delegates in 1988 came from those selected by primaries. Party leaders can no longer ignore these primaries.
Sine 1952 the primary in the state of New Hampshire has been the first and most important as it gives an indication of public opinion with regards to the voters. A candidate must do well here as a failure to do so could mean a drastic fall in that candidate’s financial status as backers might pull out and potential backers would not wish to back a non-starter. Also a failure in the New Hampshire primary might just seal the fate of that candidate who might get labelled a failure even before the nomination contest has got underway.
A failure will also do a lot to affect party support. New Hampshire has jealously guarded its position as the first state to declare who has won the party nominations and it has pushed the date of the primary election earlier and earlier. In fact, the state legislature has stated that the primary must be one week before any other state primary. In the 1996 election it was held in February. The election was in November.
The next most important date is in March when "Super Tuesday" takes place. This is when 21 states declare their nominations. A candidate can be made or broken on this day. The first "Super Tuesday" was on 8th March 1988 and it is held on the second Tuesday in March. As most of the 21 states are southern, traditionally this is a good time for southern candidates. In 1992, Bill Clinton (Arkansas) won practically all the nominations available.
In 1996, the mid-western states of Illinois, Michigan and Ohio held their primaries on the third Tuesday in March. This was done as an attempt to boost the importance of these three states which had been seen as something of a backwater politically.
California is a vital state to win. Traditionally, its primary was held in June but in 1996, it was moved to March. Winning here is very important as the state sends 20% of all the delegates to both party’s national conventions. The move to March was meant to symbolise how important this state is politically regardless of "Super Tuesday". New York state has its primary in April. By then, America will have a reasonably good idea as to who the Democrats and Republicans nominations are.
The so-called "primary season" requires candidates to involve themselves in an intensive media campaign. From February to the end of April there is no time to raise finance and this has to be done before the primaries. This need for finance allows the better known candidates more leeway as they will be better financed and therefore have more time to campaign. They are also likely to have built up a better rapport and connections with the media and they will be able to use it to their advantage.
At this time the candidates are practically by themselves and they only receive party support when it is obvious that as a candidate they have the potential to attract public support across the nation. A candidate who is not viable is not going to receive this support. A candidate who does not have the necessary financial backing will find the going extremely tough as regional primaries such as in the mid-west are expensive and to keep a campaign in the field will cost a great deal. Candidates have to adhere to the financial regulations laid down by the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1974.
How well do incumbent presidents do in primaries ? Clinton did well enough to not be opposed at the 1996 Democratic National Convention. Other presidents who wish to stand again have not done as well. Lyndon Johnson in 1968, withdrew from the Democrat’s nomination process after doing badly at the New Hampshire primary. He won just over 50% of the votes cast and he was expected to do a lot better. He suffered on the backlash that was occurring against the Vietnam. Sensing a weakened candidate, Robert Kennedy, who had been Attorney-General under his brother, announced his entry into the race and Johnson withdrew his candidacy. History tends to indicate that recent presidents who seek re-election but experience a significant challenge in the primaries usually lose the election itself - Ford (1976), Carter (1980) and Bush (1992) seem to indicate this.
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